Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Analyzing recent second serve performance, Alex De Minaur has a slightly lower success rate (46.13%) compared to Carlos Alcaraz (46.43%). Does this suggest who might have a serving advantage in the upcoming match? Slightly in favor of Alcaraz.
• In terms of return game, De Minaur has been stronger at winning points on his opponent's second serve with 43.41%, against Alcaraz's 41.68%. Could this be a useful edge? Yes, De Minaur’s return game might pose a challenge for Alcaraz.
• Return stats show a narrow difference on first serve returns, with Alcaraz at 24.40% and De Minaur at 23.56% which slightly favors Alcaraz.
• Under pressure, De Minaur has saved a marginally higher percentage of breakpoints (55.52%) compared to Alcaraz (54.80%), indicating resilience under high-stakes conditions.
• Looking at match-winning percentages over the last year, Alcaraz stands out with an 87.34% win rate, significantly higher than De Minaur’s 67.90%. This suggests overall consistency and form favor Alcaraz.
• Both players excel on Grass with a 68% win rate, but Alcaraz has a slight edge with fewer losses and his worst surface performance being better than De Minaur's worst.
• Alcaraz's most frequent matches have been on the Grand Slam level with a dominant 92.31% win rate, whereas De Minaur's focus has been on the Main tour with a 75% success rate, focusing on the caliber of competition faced.
• Historically in direct head-to-head matches, Alcaraz has a solid record against De Minaur, winning all four encounters and 8 out of 10 sets played.
• In matches heading to a deciding set, Alcaraz's 79% win rate significantly outpaces De Minaur’s 44%, highlighting a pronounced advantage in high-pressure endings.
• Alcaraz has been up against slightly tougher competition, facing opponents with a lower average rank (48.57) compared to De Minaur’s opponents (58.96).

Editorial Prediction (November 8, 2025, UTC):

When evaluating the recent performances of Alex De Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz, key factors such as serve success rates and return consistency stand out. Alcaraz edges De Minaur by a small margin on second serve performance, while De Minaur shows slight superiority in return points won on opponent’s second serves.

Under high-pressure situations, both have shown resilience, but De Minaur’s marginally better breakpoint saving statistics could become crucial. Importantly, Alcaraz’s dominant winning record over the last year and formidable head-to-head performance against De Minaur cannot be overlooked.

Considering surface adaptations, match level exposure, and particularly Alcaraz's remarkable performance in decisive sets, the predictive analysis leans toward Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely victor in their upcoming match.